1381

1381. Remember this year. Mark it on your calendar, for we shall see it again.

Wat Tyler and the king

In 1381 the peasants revolted, and under the leadership of Wat Tyler 20,000 of them almost succeeded in taking Richard II’s crown from his head and his head from his shoulders. They failed of course.

If I remember correctly, it was Laurence Eldridge, my professor of medieval English literature some 30 years ago, who first pointed out to me the significance of this event. Though professional historians might consider his explanation a bit of an over-simplification, it illustrates my point well.

In the fourteenth century the plague killed off a good portion of the English population. With labour in short supply, those serfs who had survived were able to demand better terms from their feudal lords, whose wealth was directly dependent on the serfs who worked the land. But people being people, those who survived the plague made children, and in a couple of generations, labour was no longer in short supply. The new generation of peasants could not demand the favourable terms their fathers had obtained in their day. They saw their standard of living decline.

15 year olds and their parents

My point is not about supply and demand for labour and its effect on wages. It is that the peasants revolted when they saw their lives becoming worse than their parents’ lives had been. This is why, more than 700 years later, 1381 is a year to remember.

Look around. Name me one country where a 15 year old can reasonably expect his life to be better than were his parents. If this 15 year old is a girl, her prospects are likely even worse.

The happy few and the hopeful

There might be individual exceptions, of course. The very rich are getting even richer, so their children just might be even better off, assuming that life is good in gated compounds. And there are many countries where hope is not dead.
 
The Arab Spring, for one, has only just begun. Burma alias Myanmar seems to be changing. South Sudan, just a year past independence and still not out of war, is understandably looking to the future.

In Europe

But where else? In the countries once known as “Eastern” Europe, the euphoria after the fall of the old regimes succumbed quickly to economic expedience. If you are curious for details, read Geert Mak’s In Europe. In the rest of the Europe—the rich part for the latter half of the last century—the young see a future of unemployment and idleness.

South Africa, the U.S. and China

In South Africa, the end of apartheid has not meant the end of poverty and inequality; nor did it end the violence, as the recent killing of striking miners showed. In the U.S., Obama, who inherited two wars, an exploding deficit and an imploding economy from his predecessor, has been unable to answer the dreams of those who voted for him. The speculation is on that in China the collapse has already begun.

Even in Happy Canada

Even in Canada, with its tiny population and enormous resources, the young are unemployed or underemployed. They look back at the fabled times of their parents and grandparents, when a job was a living and—if you wanted it to—lasted until you retired.

As Stéphane Hessel has written, addressing the young in Time for Outrage!, there is no lack of reasons to be outraged. All you need to do is look around. Hence the indignados, hence the Occupy movement, hence the 99%, the student strikes in Québec.

Action and reaction

So what of 1381? It’s simple, and it’s been repeated innumerable times, with innumerable variations. When the young lose hope in the future, they call for change. Be it a feudal monarchy, a creaking empire, a modern klepocracy, or a technocracy and its markets—yes, Eisenhower warned us—the military-industrial complex, the ancien régime has a tradition of answering these calls with the same foresight and wisdom that brought on the mess in the first place: with bludgeon and noose.

Things are going to get nasty. But they don’t have to. Next, we’ll look at FDR.