Thursday, April 28, 2011

E minus 4: Predictions

When the polls started coming out a few days ago out with predictions of the NDP pulling ahead of the Liberals and even having a chance at forming a government, I was going to make a prediction of my own:

Canada’s banking industry and friends will immediately begin fear mongering. An NDP government will be fatal to the Canadian economy, they will say, because the NDP are not pro-business. Investors will head for the lifeboats.

Point 1: There’s nothing to predict. It’s already started.

The braying on Bay Street has already begun. See, for example, the following from an article in the Globe and Mail and on the CTV web site: “BMO Nesbitt Burns’ No. 2 economist Doug Porter caused a stir when he wrote that the poll numbers hint at a result that would be ‘not exactly market-friendly.’” 

Now why, I ask, would Mr. Porter be making such a comment, or would the venerable Globe be running a long article on the subject if they did not want to turn it into news — and instil the fear of (economic) damnation in us?

Point 2: It wasn’t their fault.

Bay Street has certainly done better than Wall Street of late. But that, I would venture, is not because our bankers and brokers were not salivating to follow their brethren in New York, but because being cautious Canadians and rather slow off the mark, we did not deregulate our banking industry in time for the Great Crash. Canadian financial institutions did lose big; they just didn’t lose our shirts for us, as did Iceland’s banks for Icelanders and a few others.

Point 3: George Soros probably wouldn’t agree.

About eight years ago, coming back from my grandmother’s funeral I came across some comments George Soros made to Le Monde, which was running a series called something like “Three Questions for Someone Really Important”. You will remember that, as well as being a great philanthropist, George Soros is a rather successful financier, “the man who broke the Bank of England”.

The questions Le Monde had for Soros were about the appropriate roles of private enterprise and of government in the economy. Soros’s answer was simple, and I paraphrase from memory: Private enterprise is very adept at creating wealth, and should be allowed to do so. It is not very good at creating or maintaining the infrastructures it needs to create wealth. Governments are the best at doing this. Private enterprise should therefore support strong governments that invest in these infrastructures.

From what I’ve read and seen over the years, it’s the Social Democrats (the NDP here) who understand this truth, and who recognize the lie that a strong economy requires continuous tax cuts.  Red Tories understood this as well, but they are all but extinct in this country, eaten by the far more voracious New Conservatives.

If you had to choose — and you do, there’s an election on — would you go with the suits who brought you the Great Crash of 2008, or with George Soros?

No comments:

Post a Comment